British Author, Tim Marshall in Conversation With Professor Brendan Simms, Speaks About the New Geopolitical Struggle for Domination of Space
In promoting his new book, the Future of Geography, Tim Marshall and Professor Simms pondered how international law could change — and be changed — by a newly intensifying competition for resources in Space.
By Sammy McDonald
On 6 May, the British journalist and author Tim Marshall had a candid conversation with Professor Brendan Simms at the Cambridge Union. Amid a packed chamber, he discussed a topic of enormous interest to politicos and engineers alike — the politics of space. Amid intensifying geopolitical competition over space, dreams of untapped resources and the intervention of space billionaires, the question already excites heavy political controversy.
Tim Marshall discussed many of the key contours of these potential conflicts, conceptualising space in geographic and geopolitical ways. Acknowledging the romantic human desire for space exploration, Tim Marshall also discussed its political and social implications in depth. From the potential scramble for resources amid rare earth shortages here on earth (a conflict he compared to the Scramble for Africa) to satellite communication changing modern warfare to the risks of draconian ‘spheres of influence’ being drawn up, Tim Marshall discussed both how space could provide geopolitical opportunities, and how dangerous dysregulation means that potential conflicts could gain on an interplanetary dimension.
However, Marshall’s book is not all bad news for space travel enthusiasts. He does not believe that space is a necessary catalyst for conflict and, in particular, enthuses (with an evident passion) the potentialities for exploration and energy. Suggestions of intergalactic nuclear conflict from the audience were quickly rebuffed. But his book nevertheless seeks to ground the heady idealism of Musk and Bezos within a distinctly historical and geopolitical framework. Marshall applies his well-known theses on geographic history to provide a hard-headed analysis of what can sometimes be an ebullient field. He talked of the growth of great space powers, a field in which he argued Russia, America and China enjoy substantial advantages and India and Britain lag behind. Much analysis was also done of the role of satellites in warfare, especially Starlink’s role in helping Ukraine win the Battle of Kyiv in Feb-Apr 2022 through terrestrial support amid relentless Russian bombardments of communications. Laser-based downing of fatalities (at some 1/100,000 of the cost of physically downing them) was also highlighted as part of the seismic shifts in warfare. Simms also probed on the similarities between the current space race and the colonisation of the New World. Whilst not all parallels can be drawn (it’s hard to find intergalactic ‘choke points’ like Gibraltar and the Straits of Malacca), Marshall argued that China and the United States’ skill in territorially controlling vast territories and bureaucratic strength nevertheless would make them adept colonisers of space as they have been of their mainland. The talk was also peppered with the history of space, from the surprising origins of the famous countdown to space lift-off in Nazi propaganda films to a diplomatic deep dive into the Artemis Accords and the virtual spheres of influence it established.
Amid the intellectual and historical discussion, the audience also got a sense of what makes Marshall such a successful author (and a staple of most UCAS history applications) and how he sets about presenting complex geographic and political issues in such incisive and gripping terms. In a historical profession that is occasionally focused on granular histories, his revitalisation of broad, sweeping and innovative geographic analysis is certainly refreshing, a passion that came through very clearly in his talk. Revealingly, when asked about how he writes, Marshall stressed the power of being deeply interested in something — even if it isn’t originally your speciality and the importance of genuine passion. He described his boyhood wonderment of space and the catalytic effect this had on encouraging him to explore the politics of space in depth.
The Cambridge Union thanks Tim Marshall and Professor Simms for their incisive discussion and the many eloquent questions from the audience. As a new space race heats up, intensified by private capital and geopolitical competition, only time will tell if Marshall’s nuanced — but nonetheless optimistic — vision will be borne out or whether darker forces of greed or competition will predominate.
Tim Marshall’s New Book, The Future of Geography, is available in bookstores across the United Kingdom.
Written by Sammy McDonald. Sammy is a first year BA in History student at St John’s College, University of Cambridge
